No matter how much progress in science we still need to have hurricane preparedness!

In 20 years of weather science progress we still need hurricane preparedness

I’m so thankful that in the course of 20 years science has made so much progress in our weather forecasting. Even with a great amount of advancements in weather science, we still need to develop our emergency preparedness plans. The best way to begin is to personally have as much disaster preparedness information as possible this includes getting as many emergency preparedness tips as possible from a variety of reliable resources. Once we have educated ourselves then we need to develop our emergency preparedness checklist that can address our specific needs as a household. It is then that we need to complete our emergency preparedness kit for each member of the family including our pets. It is also important that we also gather over a period of time all our emergency preparedness necessities to help sustain ourselves during the survival phase of a disaster and into the initial recovery process. The more we have an emergency preparedness plan for any type of a disaster the more ready we will be even for a devastating and less expected hurricane.

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Be Safe

Terrie

www.trainforahurricane.com

Met Office gives storm warning on anniversary of 87 hurricane

http://www.scenta.co.uk/Nature/1707088/met-office-gives-storm-warning-on-anniversary-of-87-hurricane.htm

Source: Guardian Unlimited

For weather forecasters, failing to predict the great storm of 1987 that devastated swaths of southern England was the worst miss on record.

But such extreme weather would not arrive without warning today, according to the Met Office. Scientists said the computers and weather models available today are hundreds of times better, but they warned that more investment in the technology would be needed to keep on top of the predicted increase in extreme weather due to climate change.

The 1987 storm left a trail of destruction across the south of England on the night of October 15 and 16, killing 18 people and causing £1bn worth of damage.

Speaking yesterday ahead of the calamity's 20th anniversary, the Met Office's chief meteorologist, Ewen McCallum, said: "The thing to get across is the improvements made since that day: we certainly have improved data and satellite imagery; the models have vastly improved since 1987. We have bigger and better supercomputers, and we're much better at giving out messages to planners, police and emergency services."

An analysis of the 1987 storm using modern equipment showed that a column of air descending from 14,000 feet - called a sting jet - caused the intense weather. The sting jet was only 50km wide, too small to be picked up by the weather models in 1987, which only had a resolution of 75km.

That led to the infamous broadcast by weatherman Michael Fish, who told BBC viewers the night before the storm: "Earlier on today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she'd heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you are watching, don't worry, there isn't."

Dr McCallum said the comment had been "inappropriate" and that, today, forecasters would tell people the chances of a storm happening rather than giving a definitive yes or no.

Satellites, along with a network of ground-based radar detectors, monitor wind, humidity and the type of precipitation, have greatly improved the accuracy of forecasts. But the current equipment is not sensitive enough to forecast in detail the extreme weather events predicted as a result of climate change.

Brian Golding, head of forecasting research at the Met Office, said the current resolution of their weather models is 4km, with the aim to reach 1km by 2011, though this needs better satellites and a much more powerful supercomputer which would cost several hundred million pounds. But Dr Golding said the investment would save lives and prevent the major damage caused by extreme storms: "We believe that the payback is at least 10 to 20 on the investment."