Hurricane Preparedness & A Schizophrenic Hurricane Season!

Hurricane preparedness is a great ounce of prevention!

I’ve said it many times, hurricanes = chaos. This year is no different. In trying to estimate the potential hurricane season it looked very much like a monster year was taking shape. Then there was the wind sheers. We had 2 record breaking hurricanes namely Hurricane Dean and the Hurricane Felix. We have had incredible intensification of hurricanes as speeds never recorded before.

We have also had a lamb of a hurricane season in the Atlantic due to the wind sheers cutting off the potential for a gathering hurricane particularly a major hurricane.

So what are we as ordinary human begins to do in the midst of a schizophrenic hurricane season? Well frankly, no one ever has a crystal ball that can tell which storms are going to be gentle little lambs and stay out to sea and those that will crash to shore taking homes and lives with it. Because of the unpredictability of hurricanes we all just need to stay the course and prepare for a hurricane.

Today we enter the most active month of the hurricane season historically. I have no way to know if we will be lucky and escape from the monster storms or if a breeze off Africa will turn into a monster storm for us in the Atlantic before 2007 season is over.

According to Chris Mooney our future hurricane seasons may be a significant one when the conditions are ripe. Since we are not readers of the future then we must be practical in our response in developing our emergency preparedness. To do this we mush stay as informed as possible about disaster preparedness information, especially concerning hurricanes and their potential behaviors in the near and long term future. Additionally we need to get our emergency preparedness checklists together. To do that we need to have prepared our emergency preparedness plans. Just as the hurricane depends on a number of factors so we as responsible citizens of this world we must depend on a number of emergency preparedness factors to be ready for any emergency that may arise.

With indications that hurricanes may intensify more quickly at times than what we are use to in the past, it is important to have all our emergency preparedness necessities ready at a moment’s notice. If a storm can go from being a tropical storm to a category 1+ hurricane in the matter of a very few hours then we will need to have all things ready just in case and to be prepared when a storm hits.

So just because it is quite on the home front of the Atlantic seaboard, it doesn’t mean that we should not get your emergency preparedness kit ready. We should always be willing to learn emergency preparedness tips that can help make our lives and that of our loved ones better in the midst of a hurricane disaster. It takes so little to prepare emergency preparedness plan. All one needs to do is use some common sense and get the necessary disaster preparedness information so all necessary hurricane preparedness plans will be ready at a moments notice.


COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!
Terrie
Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist
www.trainforahurricane.com

Our Schizophrenic 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season
http://www.thedailygreen.com/2007/10/01/our-bizarre-2007-atlantic-hurricane-season/7407/
There’s no other possible conclusion: The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is having an identity crisis.

On the one hand, this has been the year that started out like gangbusters with its first two hurricanes, Dean and Felix, reaching Category 5 intensity. And it has also been a year in which we’ve seen a lot of ominous records being set when it comes to hurricane rapid intensification. Felix, Humberto, and now most recently Hurricane Lorenzo have each set different types of rapid intensification records. (For details see here.)

But if the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season has been behaving like a lion in some respects, it has been a lamb in others. Of the 13 named storms this year, just four have attained hurricane status, and Humberto and Lorenzo only attained it very briefly before landfall (save for their rapid intensifications, these too would have been tropical storms). That 4:13 ratio is definitely on the low end when considered in the context of the past five years. By contrast, the ratio of hurricanes to total storms was 7:16 in 2003, 9:15 in 2004, 15:28 in the record year of 2005, and even 5:10 in the less active El Nino year of 2006.

In short, not even a third of the named storms have attained hurricane strength this year, whereas over the previous four years, something much closer to a half have become at least this strong. (Note, however, that this year’s Tropical Storm Karen may be upgraded to hurricane status in post-season reanalysis.) One reason for the relative quietude is that despite La Nina conditions in the Pacific ocean, we’re still seeing lots of strong vertical wind shear over the Atlantic. Ingrid, Karen, Melissa — all have been done in by powerful shear, which has separated the storms’ thunderstorms from their centers and thereby prevented organization and development.

So what seems to be happening is that while we’re seeing many initial disturbances with hurricane potential — a lot of which have become tropical depressions or tropical storms — we’re also seeing very few storms actually live up to that potential due to an unfavorable environment in terms of atmospheric winds. However, for the few storms that have found themselves in a friendly environment — Dean, Felix, Humberto, Lorenzo — intensification has been rapid and in some cases record-setting.

In a prior Storm Pundit post, I noted my plan to ask some top hurricane specialists whether they think that hurricane intensification rates ought to change under global warming (a subject that appears to have been little studied as yet). I heard back from MIT’s Kerry Emanuel, who explained the idea in the context of a hurricane’s maximum potential intensity.

There is a theoretical speed limit for hurricanes, and Emanuel believes this is changing due to global warming — essentially meaning that hurricanes may become more intense on average in favorable conditions. In addition, Emanuel told me by email that he thinks hurricane rates of intensification should also change — i.e., if the potential intensity increases, so should the potential rate of intensification (once again, under idealized conditions). However, Emanuel cautioned that this is merely a theoretical outlook: He knows of no study that has yet related observed storm intensification rates to this theoretical expectation.

So in sum, we find ourselves staring down a hurricane season that poses a puzzle: On the one hand seemingly ominous; on the other, seemingly humdrum. The hurricane-global warming debate continues apace, and at least thus far, 2007 isn’t providing anyone with a clear victory.

Chris Mooney is Washington correspondent for Seed magazine and author of the new book Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming.