Sunday, September 30, 2007

Hurricane Preparedness also included knowing your homeowner insurance

Protecting Yourself With Good Home Owner's Insurance Is Great WayTO Work On Hurricane Preparedness!

This week a federal trial over the damages that a family in the New Orleans area came to a final settlement only after the insurance company was told by the jury that the damages to the home was due to hurricane winds not the storm surge and flooding issues that came later.

Insurance of all kinds is very difficult for most people to understand. It is important to have as much disaster preparedness information concerning what is beneficial for your very costly home owner insurance especially when you live anywhere near a hurricane possible area.

Many people that that if they have homeowners insurance then that should cover them no matter what happens. That is far from the truth. It is important to know exactly what is covered in your disaster component of your homeowner’s insurance. It may cost you some money but it is wise to have an INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONAL like a lawyer etc look over insurance policy being proposed.

You certainly don’t want to have a mortgage on that house and a destroyed home. Many in the Hurricane Katrina affected area though that they were covered by their homeowner insurance. They were not or they are like Kevin and Sherrye Webster who had to go to court to get their insurance company to pay what was owed.

Homeowner’s insurance is not enough to protect your home. Home owner insurance often if not always has statements that can disqualify the policy owner from getting money due to flood damage. True the damage might have been caused by the hurricane but you may have a hard time proving that to an insurance adjuster or court.

Make sure you have flood insurance as well as homeowner’s insurance. In hurricane areas it may cost you a good amount of money but it is well worth the additional expense.

If you are a renter you may also want to check into flood insurance to see if you could qualify for coverage of your possessions. Often renters think that the insurance that is on the house or apartment paid for by the landlord is coverage for you as well. Most instances it is not. Check to make sure.

Emergency preparedness includes having to make sure you have enough disaster related insurance to cover you in a major disaster. When you are completing or reviewing your emergency preparedness plans make sure you also include all possible information on your disaster insurance coverage. Keep a copy of your insurance information in your emergency preparedness kit along with all your other emergency preparedness necessities like food and water. Your insurance may have a provision that will help with costs for staying in a safe and comfortable location while the repair or rebuilding work is completed.

Always have the most up to date disaster preparedness information on all issues so you will be as ready for a hurricane or other disaster as possible.

When talking to an insurance agent and your lawyer afterwards, make sure you have an emergency preparedness checklist of all the areas you want and need covered in your disaster insurance. This will help to ensure that you have covered all the necessary topics they might affect your.

Before signing on the dotted line and handing over a check for the insurance, it is wise to have at least 3-5 different estimates from different companies. Each company will want to offer you their insurance plan. Make sure you are very clear with the selling agent that you want to have a breakdown of the cost per line item and that you insist that they address the issues and areas that you specify. That way you are comparing apples to apples and not apples to elephants!

Remember that the insurance agent makes their money by selling you the most insurance possible at the highest costs. They most often work on commissions. Make sure you get your money’s worth of insurance for the cost. Check around!!!

Remember in disaster preparedness if something sounds too good to be true ---IT IS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE! The cheapest policy may not be right for you and neither is the most expensive one either. Find a middle ground with all the issues you need to hurricane preparedness for you and your family.

Hurricane preparedness is not a luxury for a few, it is a MUST for all that may have to face down a hurricane and insurance companies!

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com

Texas-based insurer, couple settle in Katrina insurance trial

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5174950.html

By MICHAEL KUNZELMAN Associated Press Writer

© 2007 The Associated Press

NEW ORLEANS — A federal trial over Hurricane Katrina damage ended abruptly with a settlement between the insurance company and the Mississippi couple whose property damage, a jury decided, had been caused by the storm's wind and should have been covered by the couple's policy.

Terms of the settlement between USAA Casualty Insurance Co. and Kevin and Sherrye Webster were not disclosed. But an attorney for the couple, Charles Merkel, called the outcome "very satisfying to everybody."

USAA spokesman David Snowden confirmed the settlement but declined comment.

On Friday, the eight-member jury concluded that all of the damage to the couple's beachfront house in Bay St. Louis, Miss., was caused by Katrina's wind, wind-blown debris or wind-driven rain — perils that are covered by the San Antonio-based insurer's policies.

The jury wasn't asked to specify how much money USAA owes the Websters for the damage.

USAA had argued that nearly all of the damage to the two-story home was caused by Katrina's flood waters and wasn't covered by the Websters' policy, but the jury disagreed.

"I think it's a big victory for all the homeowners on the Gulf Coast," said attorney John Cocke, who also represents the Websters.

Friday's verdict capped the first phase of a trial that started last week in Gulfport, Miss. The next phase had been set to resume Tuesday, with the jurors hearing testimony about damage to the contents of the two-story house. Ultimately, the judge was to be responsible for calculating what USAA owes the Websters, based on the jury's verdicts.

But the settlement, reached Friday after the jury had been sent home, eliminates the need for that.

USAA and other insurers say their homeowner policies cover damage from a hurricane's wind but not its rising water, including surge. The Websters didn't have a separate flood insurance policy.

USAA blamed most of the damage to the couple's house on Katrina's storm surge, but the couple argues that wind caused the house to collapse before surge reached it.

The Websters' policy had limits of $811,000 for the house, $81,000 for a barn on their property, $162,200 for living expenses and $760,480 for the home's contents. USAA paid them $10,944 for wind damage to the house and $42,929 for the barn.

Cocke said Friday's verdict means USAA will owe the Websters at least $800,000.

The Websters also are seeking unspecified punitive damages for the company's alleged bad faith, plus attorney's fees and expenses. Jurors won't be asked to consider punitive damages until later in the trial.

The couple is among thousands of Mississippi and Louisiana property owners who have sued their insurers after Katrina wiped out large swaths of the Gulf Coast in August 2005.

Several federal trials for Katrina insurance cases already have been held in Gulfport, Miss., yielding mixed results for policyholders.

In August 2006, U.S. District Judge L.T. Senter sided with Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. and ruled that the company wasn't obligated to pay a Pascagoula couple for damage from Katrina's rising water. A federal appeals court in New Orleans later upheld that ruling.

In January, however, a jury awarded $2.5 million in punitive damages to a Biloxi couple who sued State Farm Fire and Casualty Co. for denying their claim. Senter later reduced the award to $1 million, though he said State Farm had acted in a "grossly negligent way."

Hurricanes, Leprechauns & Emergency Preparedness

The Pot Of Gold Is In Hurricane Prepaedness

Just got finished reading Neil Kastor’s blog article: How Far North Can A Hurricane Go? Interesting article Thanks for the reminder Neil, about how a storm in one section of the world can certainly affect others in distant lands. For me the important thing to remember is that we need to be prepared for all sorts of disasters including ‘extratropical’ storms.

The first time I traveled by ferry from Wales to Ireland I was shocked when we docked, there were no leprechauns but INSTEAD there were Palm Trees! I thought want a lousy joke until a staff member told me that when there are hurricanes on my side of the ‘pond’ also known as the United States, they often cause small palm trees to be uprooted and caught in the water streams / currents of the Atlantic Ocean and ultimately lands on the coast of Ireland were they re-root themselves.

No matter where you are in the world, there are disasters. Everyone is called upon if for no other reason than survival to have Emergency Preparedness as part of their general routine of life. Hurricanes in particular occur EVERY YEAR and as a result more areas can be affected by numerous storms. Hurricane preparedness is essential. No matter if you live in Alaska or Borneo everyone should have an emergency preparedness kit of necessary supplies that address the issues in their region of the world. Every one should have an emergency preparedness checklist not only for their homes but also for their cars and travel bags when they go on vacation / holiday. Emergency preparedness necessities are vital not only for survival like having a flashlight, water proof matches, emergency food supplies, extra medications and supplies as well as 3 days worth of extra water. These are just the very tip of the iceberg of emergency preparedness tips that each of us should know in case of an emergency. Everyone should have a good knowledge of disaster preparedness information and have designed their own emergency preparedness plans for their families and for work. For those who live in the hurricane area it is of utmost importance that every family have all their hurricane preparedness supplies available. It’s not too late or early to start. The sooner you start the better your supplies will be as well as the cost for those supplies will be much less than if you wait until the hurricane is starting to blow or worse yet after a hurricane has done it nasty damage.

Don’t think that a hurricane or some other danger can’t happen to you, it can. You’ll have much more luck by preparing for a hurricane than seeing Leprechauns on the banks of Ireland along with the palm trees.


COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com


A Surprise & Gift From Hurricane Humberto!

Hurricane Humberto slowly poked along through Texas. Bestowing upon everyone, torrential rains and high winds. Everyone was surprised that Tropical Storm Humberto would become a hurricane. But guess what!!! It did.

We think we are so smart that our science and advanced minds know more than nature. WOW are we stupid or what?!? No, we know a lot about a few things but when it come to nature’s furry we really don’t have but a tea cup of knowledge compared to the complexities and strength of a hurricane. Many in our communities have even les than a teaspoon of disaster preparedness information. That is why when a major storm like Hurricane Humberto hits so many in our communities are unprepared. Don’t be like that, Get hurricane preparedness under your belt and emergency preparedness necessities in your closet, under your bed or in your basement.

Yes we need to always be expanding our disaster preparedness information knowledge but we also need to be prepared when our lack of knowledge and nature’s evens come together.

Texas is still suffering from a major down pour of rain. Many parts of that coast region that reaches even into Louisiana certainly didn’t need more rain. In few hours of heavy rain in soggy saturated Texas, two elderly couples have had to be emergency evacuated from their homes due to raising waters.

Let us keep these couples and all affected by that sudden and frankly unpredicted disaster in our thoughts and prayers. Being faced with neck high flooding at any age is difficult. Facing that sort of situation at the later years of ones life is much harder physically and perhaps emotionally as well. If your are a senior citizen or have loved ones who are senior citizens, know that there are a number of different issues that this segment of our population generally deals with that others may not have as much problem with. If you don’t know about emergency preparedness issues with seniors then call your local Department of Senior Services for more disaster preparedness information as well as check out my chapter on “The Elderly” in my most recent book: Train For A Hurricane. There are resources and emergency preparedness tips that can help our senior citizens during times of disaster be safe and as comfortable as possible when natural and human made dangers occur.

Humberto has given us a major gift. Yes it is a major gift even though so many are facing floods and mud everywhere. What is the gift you ask? The gift is that it again reminds ALL of us to be prepared for any sort of disaster.

QUESTION?

My question to you is:

How prepared are you for a disaster? What if that was your home going under in hurricane flooding or tornado whirlwind - do you know what you would do? Do you have what it takes to be prepared with an emergency preparedness checklist? Are you ready for a disaster with emergency preparedness kits? Where is YOUR emergency preparedness disaster plan? Do you even HAVE a disaster plan? If not then GET ONE!

In most individual’s lifetime, they will have to face at least once some sort of a disaster. It may be a minor disaster or a killer one. Still, no matter the size or circumstance, disasters bring chaos. Are you prepared for an interruption in life resulting in some form of disaster chaos?

Disasters are the great disrupters in life.

This is a wake up call folks. Get Prepared NOW. When a disaster occurs, it is way too late to start preparing! Now not later is what is necessary.

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been a disaster? Do you know someone who is or has been in the past?

Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog.

All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com

Hurricanes! Hurricanes!!! ~ Are YOU Disaster Prepared?

DId You Know?

Did you know that this year has been a first in hurricanes? Yep, this is the first year on record where 2 Category 5 hurricanes have come a shore. Hurricane Dean and Hurricane Felix hold that record.

There has been another first as well for hurricanes this year. Hurricane Humberto according to experts was the fasted forming hurricane just before landfall on record. It was the closest hurricane to shore that record books indicate. Get this; Hurricane Humberto in less than 18 hours went from a tropical depression to a full grown Category 1 hurricane storm. That is an incredible development in the formation of a hurricane. Hurricane record keeping has been going on for the past 150 years focusing on the Atlantic Ocean.

This was what is called a 'compact storm' in that it was just 15 miles from the center to the outer bands of the hurricane force winds. If the storm has been bigger or if the hurricane had had more time to develop before hitting land the minimal damage and only one life taken may have been a different story. A mush different hurricane record story!

We have a great deal of technology but frankly we can still get a surprise from a hurricane. I know that I sound like a broken record, but, the truth is, if you are prepared for a hurricane you can deal fairly effectively with any sort of emergency or disaster. So as some sit back and are thankful of dodging another hurricane bullet, may I suggest that you sit down and start to make up your hurricane disaster preparedness plans.

If you need help with it check out Train For A Hurricane it will give disaster preparedness information as well as you will also receive your own workbook and template that can help you easily and quickly get your personal disaster plan ready. You will also get plenty of emergency preparedness tips as well including how to take care of your pet in a disaster. Do you know what you need to have in your emergency preparedness kit for your family including your dog, cat and hamster? Are you sure you have all your emergency preparedness necessities in place? Do you have a quick emergency preparedness checklist? Disaster preparedness is not something that fa few crazy people have, emergency preparedness is something everyone should have. We can nt depend on others, the government or emergency support agencies to help AFTER a disaster occurs. WE – that means you and I MUST take responsibility for our safety and support at all times, especially when a disaster occurs. No matter what surprise that may come in the form of a disaster, if you are prepared then, you’ll be ready, safe and secure. Now that is a reassuring thought!

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Tears Far Away Call For Hurricane Preparedness

Tears For Those Miles Away - Disasster Plans Called For

Many of us were glued to our televisions, radios and the internet as we all braced our collective hearts for those facing down the killer hurricanes Dean and Felix. Once these hurricanes had done there dastardly deeds of rain, floods, winds and homicidal thrust into the communities they visited and the sensational photos and coverage were filed away in our minds, most of us went back to our everyday lives.

Yea, I said ‘most everyone’. True, we certainly think of those who are living in wake and aftermath of the hurricane’s path as they clean up the mess that hurricanes bring. Hurricanes never any fun. We think of these individuals as we hear the death toll rising in Nicaragua for example.

But there is another group that does not get the publicity and attention that they ought to and frankly who need helpful support as well.

Who are these people? Where are they?

They are the “Distant Grievers“. Where are they you ask?
They are everywhere in our towns and communities or the cities and metropolitan areas not too far away from our own homes. They live, work, shop and play among us with silent voices and broken hearts.

Our world is now so migratory that individuals and families who once lived close by are now living not only miles away but thousands of miles away in far off lands. These are the people who are wondering about family and loved ones who can not be reached since the communication infrastructure is so disrupted. These are the individuals who want to go home but for what ever reason can not travel the longs distance right now.

Can you imagine how it must feel to wonder if your loved ones are OK and you can’t get a single quick call in to any of your friends and family to find out if your mother or son is listed as one of the hundreds of injured or dead? Imagine how fearful you would be if it was your mother, father, best friend or spouse / partner or child. Consider the frantic and over whelming panic that would spring up quickly in your heart.

After the first few days of hurricane media coverage with the fancy maps, the painful pictures, etc, the press reporters soon go to the next news-worthy event. Seems for those who are distant grievers that the world forgets what happened with a hurricane so far away.

Still, you who are so far away must search for any scrapes of information on the well-being of your homeland, community and family. Rumors run rampant until someone - anyone gets a call. That call can be weeks away from occurring. Times goes by so slowly, it creeps along without mercy. At times it can feel like light years until that precious call or letter arrives and then you know. And then you know.... the news is never good news. There is always pain, fear, tears and sorrow, not mention guilt.

As these distant grievers worry and grieve for a homeland far away, they are still expected to show up to work, school and other social events as usual. They are expected by society to act “normally” as much as possible.

The ‘acting normally” is not to help those who grieve from a distance, but to keep us who are not affected personally by the hurricane disaster emotionally comfortable. Many of us don’t want to think about the painful side of things especially disasters and hurricanes in particular. So we want our lives only to be touched superficially by the disaster horrors of our world though the 'at arms length’ of the internet or TV. Yet these distant grievers often must experience tears, fear and panic far away with little support. Without any or many arms that will reach out locally in help and support.

At some point in our lives each of us may experience a disaster of some sort. These disasters may be big or small, still the same they are upsetting and need to be addressed emotionally, physically and socially. It is important no matter if we live close to our families in our native homeland or far away that we establish emergency preparedness plans. To do this we must have disaster preparedness information as well as much emergency preparedness necessities as possible to help us through the disaster situations we find ourselves in.

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com

Hurricane Preparedness and Distant Grief

Grief Hurts No Matter What The Distance - Helps to be prepared

Grief
hurts no matter what shape or form it takes. Grief hurts when it is close by or if the grief is the result of something far away like the grief those in South America are experiencing after Hurricane Felix.

So often those around the person who is grieving say they don’t know what to say or what to do - so they stay silent and / or distant avoiding the pain and suffering another is experiencing. We want to make the situation ‘all better’ but the reality is that we can not bring back the dead or find the home that has been blown into a million pieces or washed out to sea. We are powerless to make things the way they were.

However we are not powerless to help in times of grief. So often we jumble up the wanting to make things the way they were, with figuring out ways to be of help and support in the current circumstance. So we throw up our collective hands and we don’t know if there is anything that can be done.

The good news is, there are things we can do and say to help bring comfort and support. Here are some ways to be supportive when there is distant grief:

When the distant grief affects someone we know personally

  1. Visit the person if they are local. You may not have any words that can make things better but a supportive appropriate physical gesture like a hug or comforting handshake can goes miles in letting the person know that there is someone who cares and tat they are not alone in their grief.
  2. If they are not local then call them and follow up with a sympathy card
  3. Call your library or even the embassy and find out what is the local custom for supporting a person from that country when there is a grief associated situation. Is food appropriate? If so then what is a traditional dish? Then research the dish and prepare it for the family / household. Is there a token or gesture that is common like flowers, etc. This honors the griever and the person who has died or suffering and gives those who are grieving a sense of homeland familiarity when so much is different in the current hosting culture.
  4. Offer an international telephone calling card so when they can contact their loved ones they will have a phone call gift from you.
  5. Offer to attend a memorial service in honor of their loved ones or community. This may be a formal memorial service or it may be informal in someone’s home. Attend just as you would in any other funeral or memorial service as a sign of solidarity with those who are grieving.
  6. Offer to have the memorial service at your home if that is a possibility

If the person(s) who are grieving are not known to you.

  1. Organize a collection of international calling cards from the community so the individuals who are distant grievers can request a gift telephone card to call home.
  2. Collect sympathy cards that the community can offer those who are grieving.
  3. Encourage / organize the community to have a memorial service in honor of all those who have perished or suffered in the tragic situation.
  4. Prepare a dish for the reception that follows the memorial service.

These are just a few of the emergency preparedness tips possibilities for those who are distance grievers.. Be creative and ask yourself what would be comforting to you if you were in a strange land and filled with sorrow and grief for loved ones far away. Then let your heart guide you! There are as many ways to be of help and support as there are willing hands and hearts.

It is important to have an emergency preparedness plans for both individual situations as well as for community occurrences. By having a distant grievers emergency preparedness checklist with names and telephone numbers of interpreters, locations for discounted international telephone calling cards, discounted sympathy cards in several languages to name just a few of the things possible on your checklist, you will be able to know what is available and when you have been address as many possible options of support as possible under often trying condition. By having completed the distant griever’s portion of a disaster plan, you and your community will be better able to help support to those in need quickly when an emergency occurs.

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been a Distant Griever? Do you know someone who is or has been a distant griever in the past?

Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog.

All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com

Even With Hurricane Preparedness - There Can Also Be Frustration & Distant Grief

No matter how much a person or a community prepares for a hurricane. There are certain things that will occur that are painful and so frustrating. One of those experiences is ''Distant Grief". There are tons of different kinds of frustrations associated with a hurricane disaster. There are physical frustrations, economic frustrations and even spiritual frustrations.

No matter how much one tries to think of everything to have on their emergency preparedness checklist no one can plan for everything. At least that is what I am told.

I firmly believe with high quality disaster preparedness information, we can do a great deal more for our hurricane preparedness, including the emotional frustrations that will inevitably be associated with a storm of that nature. When there is a catastrophic storm such as a tropical storm or hurricane there is unfortunately many times that there are deaths that occur. These deaths can be physical deaths of loved ones, friends and neighbors as well as the death of the way a community use to be. It is very hard to remake a community the way it was in pre-hurricane times. As the old song goes "If we could turn back the hands of time' but frankly we can not do that. I sure wish we could.

No matter where the hurricane strikes there will result in a group of persons known as 'distant grievers'. Distant griever experiences have a special kind of grief when tragedy has occurred ‘back home’. This is compounded even more when the tragedy is a massive tragedy such as a hurricane.

The long term frustration is that of communication. This issue comes in all shapes and sizes. There is frustration in not being able to call loved ones in the disaster affected area to find out what has happened because telephone service is disrupted. .

Another frustration is often the language barrier that distant grievers experience. There is generally less native language communication programming that can offer quick and accurate information in one’s native language when someone is living away from their original language homeland. For those who are acclimating to a different language it is frustrating trying to find out information when struggling with a new language that is not that familiar. In a disaster situation, distant grievers want information fast and timely just like the rest of us do when an emergency occurs in our lives. Often that information comes even slower and in more fragments pieces if one relies on local media coverage. The good news is that there is the internet that can offer information in the original language to help the distant griever learn more about the situation back home. Depending on the economic situation, the distant griever may or may not have immediate or continuous access to the internet for local disaster news.

Another frustration in communication is the challenge that many have in expressing their fears and worries to others who are their neighbors and co-workers when there is a language barrier. Many distant grievers find it hard to express their feelings to the outside world. Fear of rejection is a possibility. Additionally, different cultures have different ways of expressing their feelings. For some their culture accepts intense emotions while others expect expressions of emotions to be limited in public areas. These cultural differences in grief expression can at times be misinterpreted by the hosting culture.

Another frustration is the inability to help. The geographical distance is such a daunting and restricting inhibitor for many who are grieving from a distance. Many have skills that are so necessary during an emergency such as a hurricane but due to geographic distance they are not able to help. Their frustration mounts daily.


One of my frustrations is that this blog does not afford me the opportunity to go into more detail about the frustrations of distant grief! More information can be found in the chapter “Tears Far Away” in Train For A Hurricane.


COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been a Distant Griever? Do you know someone who is or has been a distant griever in the past?

Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog.


All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Do we still need to prepare for a hurrcane?

When it comes to hurricanes – Are we still in the wind and rain or out of the woods? Do we need to prepare for a hurricane?

Is hurricane seson over with?

When that question came up, a friend of mine said, “Oh we HAD a nice quite year for hurricanes. The US didn’t get any!” I asked "How come you think hurricane season is already over with?" Well she said: “the peak is over and if nothing has happened by then, than we are out of the woods.”

We may have already hit the peak for historical purposes for hurricanes BUT we are certainly NOT OUT OF THE WOODS. We can be thankful that no major hurricane storms have hit the US but we also need to be concerned for our neighbors in Mexico and South America that really got slammed.

We also need to still be hurricane prepared. If you don’t think so, then read the announcement from the Weather Channel about what might be cooking in the Gulf.

Those on the oil markets think we are not out of the hurricane storm woods yet and have raised the price of oil due to the possibility of a Gulf of Mexico hurricane disaster. The water is still warm and things can happen.

Keep hurricane prepared or continue to get prepared. What ever you do, don’t eat that extra stock of granola bars and cans of tuna you have on hand for emergency disaster preparation, you may still need those emergency preparedness necessities this year. Oh yea, if tuna and granola are all you have stocked for a hurricane, think seriously about reading Train For A Hurricane, it may help your hurricane storm experience be a more comfortable and a much safer one! It has 300+ pages of disaster preparedness information to help you find yoru way out of the hurricane woods when the winds blow!

We are not out of the woods so make sure you have your emergency preparedness checklist all ready and know the latest emergency preparedness tips.

Hurricanes, Tropical Storms And Driving - How To Prepare

We have all heard the saying I’m sure that water and oil don’t mix. It is so true. This is especially the case when the water and the oil are mixing on the roads we have to drive on.

It’s bad enough to have to drive in heavy down pours of rain but it is dangerous to drive when the oil from the roads are floating to the surface and causing oil slicks. With many heavy duty trucks on many of the roads this will result in even more slick spots especially in heavy isolated storms or in hurricanes or their aftermath.

So if you have to be out in the rain take extra precautions and make sure you have a disaster kit for your car. I f you don’t have to be out in it STAY INSIDE for your sake and others.

You may drive on the road just find but your driving could help to bring up the oil off the surface and result in others being affected. So stay, off the roads, stay in and relax. Hey it’s the weekend if there is a storm in your area..

QUESTION: What are you doing to prepare for the active weather weekend? Where are you and what do you think you should do to prepare for storms?

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com


Hurricanes As Indicators In Possible Global Warming

I just finished reading an exceptional article from the Journal Science concerning Hurricanes and global warming. Excellent article with some highly skilled and renowned leaders in the fields of climatology and Atmospheric Science and Meteorology. Yes it is a long article and yes it is a bit up there in the academic clouds of language BUT it also speaks volumes on what every one should be understanding about our future hurricane conditions adn whyu we shoudl beging now to be hurricane prepared.


Today I wrote a blog article about the sandwich of a hurricane and tropical storm that we in the US will experience in the next several days. These are mild storms. Yet the natural disaster and hurricane storms in particular as forecasts for the future are not as rosy as these current conditions.


We look at Hurricane Katrina and shake our heads and say how terrible that WAS . Are we shaking our heads and asking WHAT WILL BE? The issues of critical incident thanostic (death and loss) related hurricane disasters and the role of weather is only going to be increasing in intensity along side that of the storms that we will be confronted with.


As a critical incident thanatologist, I look not only at the swirling maps and think of only of the rain and the wind. My eyes see the swirls of pain and suffering that are associated with the dreaded tropical storms in the everyday lives of individuals that are profoundly affected by these natural evens.


With more people living closer to the coastal areas and the severity of hurricane storms that are and will occur, the conditions are ripe for the unfortunate results of mass fatalities and vast loss of property. We will need to quickly and appropriately review with a very critical eye the infrastructure and community environment that these hurricanes will affect. But it is not enough to only look at the levies and bridges as well as the shore line and weather maps. That is looking at things in a micro fashion with a band aid. A much broader view and response must be taken and the actions must be effective, comprehensive and time sensitive with a large dose of hurricane education on individual responsibility for self protection, hurricane response and hurricane recovery.


What we also need to be looking at is how do people react to the threat of a potential disaster, how well disaster prepared are they and how do they recover from a hurricane aftermath. We will need to develop ways to effectively help individuals move from a view that it ”can’t happen to them’ or that the ‘government and aid organizations are able to take care of any difficulties that may occur’. This is so unrealistic a mind set and will not only cost our local and national governments untold billions in cost but the cost to the emotional psyche of the affected nations and the local community will be beyond measure.


Part of that attitude is the result of lack of disaster education of how to prepare respond and recover from a hurricane as well as an disaster preparedness information on the responsibilities that individual must have to prepare, respond and recover from the forces of a hurricane as well as other naturally related events in our weather conditions.


Schools are great at teaching some things but there will need to be numerous courses offered on all educational levels and situations as to how to develop the ability to cope with the hurricane trauma and other disasters. If we don’t start at a very early age to foster the physical skills and emotional abilities to deal productively and effectively with hurricanes and other disasters then our global society is in an even more grave position that that of just the escalation of the weather conditions and their intensity. Everyone must learn effecteive emergency preparedness to be as disaster equipped for any sort of disaster possible.


We talk about leaving no child behind in school. That is a noble ideal but we need to develop and quickly the tools, resources and mindset that no person will be left behind in developing their disaster preparedness information skills, talents and abilities to prepare, respond effectively and ultimately to recover from the aftermath of disasters. If we do not as a nation and as a world help ourselves and our neighbors to learn how to prepare, survive and recover physically, emotionally and financially from the many disasters that may be headed our way, than the worse disaster will not be the weather but our lack of critical incident survival education.

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Be Safe!

Terrie

Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

www.trainforahurricane.com


Hurricanes and Climate Change: What's Resolved and What Remains To Be Resolved?

http://www.hillheat.com/events/2007/09/21/hurricanes-and-climate-change-whats-resolved-and-what-remains-to-be-resolved


Is there a scientific basis for anticipating that human-induced climate warming does and/or will affect hurricanes in some way, over and above natural climate variability? Do observations and model simulations support that expectation, or are there issues with data and observations that make the task of sorting out linkages more difficult? If the latter, what are the observational and data issues that continue to make this a challenging scientific problem? What do we know now that we did not know two years ago? What role do model simulations play in helping to sort out linkages, if any, between global warming and hurricanes, in the absence of data/observation or the presence of unreliable data/observations? How can we best develop a coordinated national effort to provide urgently required information for planning, community response and infrastructure development.

Moderator


* Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Science Fellow, American Meteorological Society


Speakers


* Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

* Dr. William K. M. Lau, Chief, Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

* Dr. Greg Holland, Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

* Dr. Gabriel Vecchi, Research Oceanographer, Climate diagnostics Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, NJ.

* Thomas R. Knutson, Research Meteorologist, Climate Dynamics and Prediction Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, NJ.


Overview of Hurricanes and Climate Change (a.k.a. global warming)


The understanding of climate change, including its effects on hurricanes, rests on three essential scientific techniques: theory, observation, and computational modeling. Each of these three approaches has unique strengths and limitations. In this talk, I will discuss the application of each of these to understanding the effect of climate change on hurricane activity and demonstrate that while each approach is compromised by uncertainties, taken together they present a persuasive picture of increasing hurricane risk as the climate warms.

Rainfall Extremes, Saharan Dust, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change


Trends in tropical rainfall are more readily detectable in the form of changes in rainfall characteristics, rather than in rainfall total. From satellite data, we find that in the tropics there is a strong positive trend in extreme heavy and very light rains, coupled to a negative trend in moderate rain. Climatologically over tropical oceans, a large portion (over 60%) of most extreme heavy rainfall (top 5%) can be identified with those coming from tropical cyclones. Over the Atlantic, the contribution of tropical cyclones to heavy rain events has almost doubled in the last quarter century. Over the Pacific basin, the increase is lesser at about 10%. The differences in the basin may be related to the percentage change in the warm pool (SST> 28 ºC) areas in both oceans. Overall, tropical cyclones appear to be feeding more extreme rainfall events in the tropics in recent decades.


Saharan dust can affect tropical cyclones development, and may be a factor contributing to long-term hurricane statistics and possibly in seasonal hurricane forecasts. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) can suppress tropical cyclogenesis through entrainment of hot, dry air into a developing cyclone, increasing stability and denying the developing system of its moisture supply. Saharan dust may also pre-condition the Atlantic, cooling the ocean surface through attenuation of solar radiation, during the early hurricane season. Additionally, differential radiative heating of the atmosphere by Saharan dust may induce changes in the large-scale circulation over the West Africa and Atlantic region. All these effects may provide a feedback on the coupled ocean-atmosphere system over the Atlantic, modulating the seasonal statistics of hurricanes. Analyses of satellite data and historical records show a more (less) active hurricane season is generally associated with less (more) Saharan dust over the Atlantic.


Global Warming and Hurricane Activity


The past century has seen North Atlantic hurricanes occurring in three periods of relatively stable frequency separated by sharp upward transitions. Each period has experienced 50% more hurricanes than the previous one and each was associated with a distinct change in eastern Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). After taking account of missing cyclones in earlier periods due to poor observing systems, we have experienced an 80-100% increase in hurricane frequency over since the early 1900s. Natural variability has contributed to some of the observed changes, but the compelling conclusion is that the overall increase has been substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on this increasing hurricane frequency is a completely independent oscillation in the proportions of major and minor hurricanes (compared to all storms). This oscillation has no distinguishable net trend and may arise largely from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 arose entirely from this oscillation. Unfortunately, the period since 1995 has experienced a double-whammy of a sharp increase in both numbers of hurricanes and the proportion of major hurricanes.


This heightened hurricane activity is unlikely to decrease in the future and we may see further increases. If so, current planning, building and coastal levee systems may prove to be inadequate, leading to more New Orleans-type disasters. The National Hurricane Research Initiative is designed to provide us with the tools to assess this future threat, to develop improved forecast and community response approaches, and to establish coastal planning approach to minimize the potential for future disasters. It is an initiative of critical national importance, which deserves strong and urgent support.


Long-term changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity: Looking Forward and Looking Back


To understand how human-induced climate change influences global and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity it is essential to have accurate records of past tropical cyclone variations and to model future climate conditions. The ways that tropical cyclones are measured have evolved over time, thereby influencing the homogeneity of the record. Statistical techniques can help, however, to estimate these deficiencies in the century-scale record. To project future conditions, global climate models (GCMs) – though not perfect – are our best tools. Although current computing power prevents GCMs from explicitly representing tropical cyclones, GCMs do indicate robust changes in many of the large-scale environmental conditions that are known to influence tropical cyclone activity, such as the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and vertical wind shear. Analyses of climate models and reconstructions of past tropical cyclone records indicate:


* Observational evidence for century-scale changes in tropical cyclone activity is mixed, depending on the metric chosen, on the statistical correction applied to the data and on the time interval being examined.

* Climate model projections of the Atlantic and East Pacific response to global warming exhibit mixed changes in cyclone-relevant parameters, with both an increase in thermodynamic potential intensity of tropical cyclones and an increase in vertical wind shear. More refined methods are needed to understand the detailed response of tropical cyclones to these environmental changes.

* Outside of the Atlantic and East Pacific, projected changes to both the thermodynamic potential and the wind shear indicate conditions more favorable to tropical cyclone activity under global warming.

* Although questions remain about the detailed response of tropical cyclone activity to human-induced climate change, we have relatively much greater confidence in the projected response of other large-scale climate conditions to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g., global warming, surface temperatures over land warm faster than over ocean, Arctic sea ice reduction, increase in ocean heat content, etc.).


Modeling the Response of Atlantic Hurricanes to Climate Variability and Change


A pressing question concerning ongoing global warming is whether human-caused warming of the planet has had any discernible impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Confidence in any such a link is currently hampered by both data quality issues for the hurricane observational record and by limited work specifically targeting this question from a modeling perspective. Based on existing studies to date:


* Observed data, including consideration of data problems, give conflicting indications on whether there have been significant increases in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane numbers. U.S. land-falling numbers have not increased. Models have not yet reproduced some reported long-term (~100 yr) increasing trends in basin-wide numbers.

* High resolution models consistently project increasing hurricane intensities and rainfall rates for the late 21st century, but whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes remains uncertain.

* A new modeling approach reproduces many important aspects of Atlantic hurricane activity observed since 1980, and thus shows promise as a tool for both understanding past variations and for making more reliable projections of future hurricane activity.

Biographies Dr. Kerry Emanuel is a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he has been on the faculty since 1981, after spending three years as a faculty member at UCLA. Professor Emanuel’s research interests focus on tropical meteorology and climate, with a specialty in hurricane physics. His interests also include cumulus convection, and advanced methods of sampling the atmosphere in aid of numerical weather prediction. He is the author or co-author of over 100 peer-reviewed scientific papers, and three books, including Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes, recently released by Oxford University Press and aimed at a general audience, and What We Know about Climate Change, published by the MIT Press.

Dr. William Lau is currently the Chief of the Laboratory for Atmospheres at NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, and Adjunct Professor at Department of Meteorology U. of Maryland. His research work spans three decades and covers a wide range of topics including climate dynamics, tropical and monsoon meteorology, ocean-atmosphere interaction, and climate variability and change.


Dr. Lau has received numerous awards for his research and his scientific leadership, including among others, the AMS Meisinger Award in 1997; the John Lindsay Award,1998; the NASA Exceptional Science Achievement Award, 1991; the William Nordberg Award (GSFC highest award in Earth Sciences), 2002. He is a Goddard Senior Fellow, a fellow of the American Meteorological Society since 1988, and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, 2007. Dr. Lau has published over 190 refereed papers, book Chapters in refereed journals. He is the principal author of a book “Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere System”, published in 2006. Dr. Lau received his B. Sc. in Physics and Mathematics from the University of Hong Kong, and his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington, Seattle.


Dr. Greg Holland is currently Director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, where he is involved scientifically with hurricane landfall, genesis and climate related work. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society as well as the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Dr. Holland has several areas of research interests which have carried through to applications and include improved forecasting of tropical cyclone motion, scale interactions associated with cyclogenesis, establishment of field facilities, establishment of programs on coastal impacts of tropical cyclones and the development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).


Dr. Holland has authored or co-authored more than 120 peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and book chapters, as well as dozens of planning documents, scientific prospectuses and workshop papers. He has given several hundred invited talks worldwide, as well as many contributed presentations at national and international conferences on hurricanes and related. He has also convened several national and international workshops, and served on several national and international committees and science-planning initiatives.


Dr. Gabriel Vecchi is a Research Oceanographer at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey, where he has been working since 2003. GFDL, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is one of the world’s leading climate modeling centers. Dr. Vecchi received a B.A. in Mathematics from Rutgers University, and an M.S. in Oceanography, an M.S. in Applied Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Oceanography from the University of Washington. His scientific research focuses on the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans on timescales from weeks to centuries. His recent research has focused on understanding long-term changes to tropical circulation and variability, including characterizing changes relevant to the possible impact of climate change on hurricanes.


Dr. Vecchi currently serves on the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Indian Ocean Panel, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. His awards include the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the American Geophysical Union’s Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Geophysical Research Letters, and the Cook College, Rutgers University Marine Sciences Student of the Year. He has over 30 publications in peer-reviewed science journals or book chapters.


Thomas R. Knutson has been a Research Meteorologist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey since 1990. GFDL, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is one of the world’s leading climate modeling centers. Mr. Knutson has authored several modeling studies in major scientific journals on the potential impact of climate change on hurricanes. He now leads a project at GFDL aimed at simulating past and future Atlantic hurricane activity using regional high-resolution models.


He currently serves on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones, and was a major contributor to the December 2006 WMO “Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change”. He is a member of a U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) committee developing an assessment report on “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate,” the AMS Climate Variability and Change Committee, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of Climate. Mr. Knutson has over 30 publications in peer-reviewed science journals or book chapters.

Posted in Science

Tags hurricanes



Hurricanes and Climate Change: What's Resolved and What Remains To Be Resolved?

http://www.hillheat.com/events/2007/09/21/hurricanes-and-climate-change-whats-resolved-and-what-remains-to-be-resolved


Is there a scientific basis for anticipating that human-induced climate warming does and/or will affect hurricanes in some way, over and above natural climate variability? Do observations and model simulations support that expectation, or are there issues with data and observations that make the task of sorting out linkages more difficult? If the latter, what are the observational and data issues that continue to make this a challenging scientific problem? What do we know now that we did not know two years ago? What role do model simulations play in helping to sort out linkages, if any, between global warming and hurricanes, in the absence of data/observation or the presence of unreliable data/observations? How can we best develop a coordinated national effort to provide urgently required information for planning, community response and infrastructure development.

Moderator


* Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Science Fellow, American Meteorological Society


Speakers


* Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

* Dr. William K. M. Lau, Chief, Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

* Dr. Greg Holland, Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

* Dr. Gabriel Vecchi, Research Oceanographer, Climate diagnostics Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, NJ.

* Thomas R. Knutson, Research Meteorologist, Climate Dynamics and Prediction Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, NJ.


Overview of Hurricanes and Climate Change (a.k.a. global warming)


The understanding of climate change, including its effects on hurricanes, rests on three essential scientific techniques: theory, observation, and computational modeling. Each of these three approaches has unique strengths and limitations. In this talk, I will discuss the application of each of these to understanding the effect of climate change on hurricane activity and demonstrate that while each approach is compromised by uncertainties, taken together they present a persuasive picture of increasing hurricane risk as the climate warms.

Rainfall Extremes, Saharan Dust, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change


Trends in tropical rainfall are more readily detectable in the form of changes in rainfall characteristics, rather than in rainfall total. From satellite data, we find that in the tropics there is a strong positive trend in extreme heavy and very light rains, coupled to a negative trend in moderate rain. Climatologically over tropical oceans, a large portion (over 60%) of most extreme heavy rainfall (top 5%) can be identified with those coming from tropical cyclones. Over the Atlantic, the contribution of tropical cyclones to heavy rain events has almost doubled in the last quarter century. Over the Pacific basin, the increase is lesser at about 10%. The differences in the basin may be related to the percentage change in the warm pool (SST> 28 ºC) areas in both oceans. Overall, tropical cyclones appear to be feeding more extreme rainfall events in the tropics in recent decades.


Saharan dust can affect tropical cyclones development, and may be a factor contributing to long-term hurricane statistics and possibly in seasonal hurricane forecasts. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) can suppress tropical cyclogenesis through entrainment of hot, dry air into a developing cyclone, increasing stability and denying the developing system of its moisture supply. Saharan dust may also pre-condition the Atlantic, cooling the ocean surface through attenuation of solar radiation, during the early hurricane season. Additionally, differential radiative heating of the atmosphere by Saharan dust may induce changes in the large-scale circulation over the West Africa and Atlantic region. All these effects may provide a feedback on the coupled ocean-atmosphere system over the Atlantic, modulating the seasonal statistics of hurricanes. Analyses of satellite data and historical records show a more (less) active hurricane season is generally associated with less (more) Saharan dust over the Atlantic.


Global Warming and Hurricane Activity


The past century has seen North Atlantic hurricanes occurring in three periods of relatively stable frequency separated by sharp upward transitions. Each period has experienced 50% more hurricanes than the previous one and each was associated with a distinct change in eastern Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). After taking account of missing cyclones in earlier periods due to poor observing systems, we have experienced an 80-100% increase in hurricane frequency over since the early 1900s. Natural variability has contributed to some of the observed changes, but the compelling conclusion is that the overall increase has been substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on this increasing hurricane frequency is a completely independent oscillation in the proportions of major and minor hurricanes (compared to all storms). This oscillation has no distinguishable net trend and may arise largely from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 arose entirely from this oscillation. Unfortunately, the period since 1995 has experienced a double-whammy of a sharp increase in both numbers of hurricanes and the proportion of major hurricanes.


This heightened hurricane activity is unlikely to decrease in the future and we may see further increases. If so, current planning, building and coastal levee systems may prove to be inadequate, leading to more New Orleans-type disasters. The National Hurricane Research Initiative is designed to provide us with the tools to assess this future threat, to develop improved forecast and community response approaches, and to establish coastal planning approach to minimize the potential for future disasters. It is an initiative of critical national importance, which deserves strong and urgent support.


Long-term changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity: Looking Forward and Looking Back


To understand how human-induced climate change influences global and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity it is essential to have accurate records of past tropical cyclone variations and to model future climate conditions. The ways that tropical cyclones are measured have evolved over time, thereby influencing the homogeneity of the record. Statistical techniques can help, however, to estimate these deficiencies in the century-scale record. To project future conditions, global climate models (GCMs) – though not perfect – are our best tools. Although current computing power prevents GCMs from explicitly representing tropical cyclones, GCMs do indicate robust changes in many of the large-scale environmental conditions that are known to influence tropical cyclone activity, such as the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and vertical wind shear. Analyses of climate models and reconstructions of past tropical cyclone records indicate:


* Observational evidence for century-scale changes in tropical cyclone activity is mixed, depending on the metric chosen, on the statistical correction applied to the data and on the time interval being examined.

* Climate model projections of the Atlantic and East Pacific response to global warming exhibit mixed changes in cyclone-relevant parameters, with both an increase in thermodynamic potential intensity of tropical cyclones and an increase in vertical wind shear. More refined methods are needed to understand the detailed response of tropical cyclones to these environmental changes.

* Outside of the Atlantic and East Pacific, projected changes to both the thermodynamic potential and the wind shear indicate conditions more favorable to tropical cyclone activity under global warming.

* Although questions remain about the detailed response of tropical cyclone activity to human-induced climate change, we have relatively much greater confidence in the projected response of other large-scale climate conditions to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g., global warming, surface temperatures over land warm faster than over ocean, Arctic sea ice reduction, increase in ocean heat content, etc.).


Modeling the Response of Atlantic Hurricanes to Climate Variability and Change


A pressing question concerning ongoing global warming is whether human-caused warming of the planet has had any discernible impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Confidence in any such a link is currently hampered by both data quality issues for the hurricane observational record and by limited work specifically targeting this question from a modeling perspective. Based on existing studies to date:


* Observed data, including consideration of data problems, give conflicting indications on whether there have been significant increases in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane numbers. U.S. land-falling numbers have not increased. Models have not yet reproduced some reported long-term (~100 yr) increasing trends in basin-wide numbers.

* High resolution models consistently project increasing hurricane intensities and rainfall rates for the late 21st century, but whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes remains uncertain.

* A new modeling approach reproduces many important aspects of Atlantic hurricane activity observed since 1980, and thus shows promise as a tool for both understanding past variations and for making more reliable projections of future hurricane activity.

Biographies Dr. Kerry Emanuel is a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he has been on the faculty since 1981, after spending three years as a faculty member at UCLA. Professor Emanuel’s research interests focus on tropical meteorology and climate, with a specialty in hurricane physics. His interests also include cumulus convection, and advanced methods of sampling the atmosphere in aid of numerical weather prediction. He is the author or co-author of over 100 peer-reviewed scientific papers, and three books, including Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes, recently released by Oxford University Press and aimed at a general audience, and What We Know about Climate Change, published by the MIT Press.

Dr. William Lau is currently the Chief of the Laboratory for Atmospheres at NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, and Adjunct Professor at Department of Meteorology U. of Maryland. His research work spans three decades and covers a wide range of topics including climate dynamics, tropical and monsoon meteorology, ocean-atmosphere interaction, and climate variability and change.


Dr. Lau has received numerous awards for his research and his scientific leadership, including among others, the AMS Meisinger Award in 1997; the John Lindsay Award,1998; the NASA Exceptional Science Achievement Award, 1991; the William Nordberg Award (GSFC highest award in Earth Sciences), 2002. He is a Goddard Senior Fellow, a fellow of the American Meteorological Society since 1988, and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, 2007. Dr. Lau has published over 190 refereed papers, book Chapters in refereed journals. He is the principal author of a book “Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere System”, published in 2006. Dr. Lau received his B. Sc. in Physics and Mathematics from the University of Hong Kong, and his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington, Seattle.


Dr. Greg Holland is currently Director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, where he is involved scientifically with hurricane landfall, genesis and climate related work. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society as well as the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Dr. Holland has several areas of research interests which have carried through to applications and include improved forecasting of tropical cyclone motion, scale interactions associated with cyclogenesis, establishment of field facilities, establishment of programs on coastal impacts of tropical cyclones and the development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).


Dr. Holland has authored or co-authored more than 120 peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and book chapters, as well as dozens of planning documents, scientific prospectuses and workshop papers. He has given several hundred invited talks worldwide, as well as many contributed presentations at national and international conferences on hurricanes and related. He has also convened several national and international workshops, and served on several national and international committees and science-planning initiatives.


Dr. Gabriel Vecchi is a Research Oceanographer at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey, where he has been working since 2003. GFDL, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is one of the world’s leading climate modeling centers. Dr. Vecchi received a B.A. in Mathematics from Rutgers University, and an M.S. in Oceanography, an M.S. in Applied Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Oceanography from the University of Washington. His scientific research focuses on the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans on timescales from weeks to centuries. His recent research has focused on understanding long-term changes to tropical circulation and variability, including characterizing changes relevant to the possible impact of climate change on hurricanes.


Dr. Vecchi currently serves on the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Indian Ocean Panel, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. His awards include the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the American Geophysical Union’s Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Geophysical Research Letters, and the Cook College, Rutgers University Marine Sciences Student of the Year. He has over 30 publications in peer-reviewed science journals or book chapters.


Thomas R. Knutson has been a Research Meteorologist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey since 1990. GFDL, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is one of the world’s leading climate modeling centers. Mr. Knutson has authored several modeling studies in major scientific journals on the potential impact of climate change on hurricanes. He now leads a project at GFDL aimed at simulating past and future Atlantic hurricane activity using regional high-resolution models.


He currently serves on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones, and was a major contributor to the December 2006 WMO “Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change”. He is a member of a U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) committee developing an assessment report on “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate,” the AMS Climate Variability and Change Committee, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of Climate. Mr. Knutson has over 30 publications in peer-reviewed science journals or book chapters.

Posted in Science