I just finished reading an exceptional article from the Journal Science concerning Hurricanes and global warming. Excellent article with some highly skilled and renowned leaders in the fields of climatology and Atmospheric Science and Meteorology. Yes it is a long article and yes it is a bit up there in the academic clouds of language BUT it also speaks volumes on what every one should be understanding about our future hurricane conditions adn whyu we shoudl beging now to be hurricane prepared.
Today I wrote a blog article about the sandwich of a hurricane and tropical storm that we in the
We look at Hurricane Katrina and shake our heads and say how terrible that WAS . Are we shaking our heads and asking WHAT WILL BE? The issues of critical incident thanostic (death and loss) related hurricane disasters and the role of weather is only going to be increasing in intensity along side that of the storms that we will be confronted with.
As a critical incident thanatologist, I look not only at the swirling maps and think of only of the rain and the wind. My eyes see the swirls of pain and suffering that are associated with the dreaded tropical storms in the everyday lives of individuals that are profoundly affected by these natural evens.
With more people living closer to the coastal areas and the severity of hurricane storms that are and will occur, the conditions are ripe for the unfortunate results of mass fatalities and vast loss of property. We will need to quickly and appropriately review with a very critical eye the infrastructure and community environment that these hurricanes will affect. But it is not enough to only look at the levies and bridges as well as the shore line and weather maps. That is looking at things in a micro fashion with a band aid. A much broader view and response must be taken and the actions must be effective, comprehensive and time sensitive with a large dose of hurricane education on individual responsibility for self protection, hurricane response and hurricane recovery.
What we also need to be looking at is how do people react to the threat of a potential disaster, how well disaster prepared are they and how do they recover from a hurricane aftermath. We will need to develop ways to effectively help individuals move from a view that it ”can’t happen to them’ or that the ‘government and aid organizations are able to take care of any difficulties that may occur’. This is so unrealistic a mind set and will not only cost our local and national governments untold billions in cost but the cost to the emotional psyche of the affected nations and the local community will be beyond measure.
Part of that attitude is the result of lack of disaster education of how to prepare respond and recover from a hurricane as well as an disaster preparedness information on the responsibilities that individual must have to prepare, respond and recover from the forces of a hurricane as well as other naturally related events in our weather conditions.
Schools are great at teaching some things but there will need to be numerous courses offered on all educational levels and situations as to how to develop the ability to cope with the hurricane trauma and other disasters. If we don’t start at a very early age to foster the physical skills and emotional abilities to deal productively and effectively with hurricanes and other disasters then our global society is in an even more grave position that that of just the escalation of the weather conditions and their intensity. Everyone must learn effecteive emergency preparedness to be as disaster equipped for any sort of disaster possible.
We talk about leaving no child behind in school. That is a noble ideal but we need to develop and quickly the tools, resources and mindset that no person will be left behind in developing their disaster preparedness information skills, talents and abilities to prepare, respond effectively and ultimately to recover from the aftermath of disasters. If we do not as a nation and as a world help ourselves and our neighbors to learn how to prepare, survive and recover physically, emotionally and financially from the many disasters that may be headed our way, than the worse disaster will not be the weather but our lack of critical incident survival education.
COMMENTS WELCOMED!
Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past? Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog. All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.
Be Safe!
Terrie
Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist
www.trainforahurricane.com
Hurricanes and Climate Change: What's Resolved and What Remains To Be Resolved?
Is there a scientific basis for anticipating that human-induced climate warming does and/or will affect hurricanes in some way, over and above natural climate variability? Do observations and model simulations support that expectation, or are there issues with data and observations that make the task of sorting out linkages more difficult? If the latter, what are the observational and data issues that continue to make this a challenging scientific problem? What do we know now that we did not know two years ago? What role do model simulations play in helping to sort out linkages, if any, between global warming and hurricanes, in the absence of data/observation or the presence of unreliable data/observations? How can we best develop a coordinated national effort to provide urgently required information for planning, community response and infrastructure development.
Moderator
* Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Science Fellow, American Meteorological Society
Speakers
* Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
* Dr. William K. M. Lau, Chief, Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center,
* Dr. Greg Holland, Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory,
* Dr. Gabriel Vecchi, Research Oceanographer, Climate diagnostics Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, NJ.
* Thomas R. Knutson, Research Meteorologist, Climate Dynamics and Prediction Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA,
Overview of Hurricanes and Climate Change (a.k.a. global warming)
The understanding of climate change, including its effects on hurricanes, rests on three essential scientific techniques: theory, observation, and computational modeling. Each of these three approaches has unique strengths and limitations. In this talk, I will discuss the application of each of these to understanding the effect of climate change on hurricane activity and demonstrate that while each approach is compromised by uncertainties, taken together they present a persuasive picture of increasing hurricane risk as the climate warms.
Trends in tropical rainfall are more readily detectable in the form of changes in rainfall characteristics, rather than in rainfall total. From satellite data, we find that in the tropics there is a strong positive trend in extreme heavy and very light rains, coupled to a negative trend in moderate rain. Climatologically over tropical oceans, a large portion (over 60%) of most extreme heavy rainfall (top 5%) can be identified with those coming from tropical cyclones. Over the
Saharan dust can affect tropical cyclones development, and may be a factor contributing to long-term hurricane statistics and possibly in seasonal hurricane forecasts. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) can suppress tropical cyclogenesis through entrainment of hot, dry air into a developing cyclone, increasing stability and denying the developing system of its moisture supply. Saharan dust may also pre-condition the
Global Warming and Hurricane Activity
The past century has seen
This heightened hurricane activity is unlikely to decrease in the future and we may see further increases. If so, current planning, building and coastal levee systems may prove to be inadequate, leading to more New Orleans-type disasters. The National Hurricane Research Initiative is designed to provide us with the tools to assess this future threat, to develop improved forecast and community response approaches, and to establish coastal planning approach to minimize the potential for future disasters. It is an initiative of critical national importance, which deserves strong and urgent support.
Long-term changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity: Looking Forward and Looking Back
To understand how human-induced climate change influences global and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity it is essential to have accurate records of past tropical cyclone variations and to model future climate conditions. The ways that tropical cyclones are measured have evolved over time, thereby influencing the homogeneity of the record. Statistical techniques can help, however, to estimate these deficiencies in the century-scale record. To project future conditions, global climate models (GCMs) – though not perfect – are our best tools. Although current computing power prevents GCMs from explicitly representing tropical cyclones, GCMs do indicate robust changes in many of the large-scale environmental conditions that are known to influence tropical cyclone activity, such as the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and vertical wind shear. Analyses of climate models and reconstructions of past tropical cyclone records indicate:
* Observational evidence for century-scale changes in tropical cyclone activity is mixed, depending on the metric chosen, on the statistical correction applied to the data and on the time interval being examined.
* Climate model projections of the
* Outside of the
* Although questions remain about the detailed response of tropical cyclone activity to human-induced climate change, we have relatively much greater confidence in the projected response of other large-scale climate conditions to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g., global warming, surface temperatures over land warm faster than over ocean, Arctic sea ice reduction, increase in ocean heat content, etc.).
Modeling the Response of Atlantic Hurricanes to Climate Variability and Change
A pressing question concerning ongoing global warming is whether human-caused warming of the planet has had any discernible impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Confidence in any such a link is currently hampered by both data quality issues for the hurricane observational record and by limited work specifically targeting this question from a modeling perspective. Based on existing studies to date:
* Observed data, including consideration of data problems, give conflicting indications on whether there have been significant increases in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane numbers.
* High resolution models consistently project increasing hurricane intensities and rainfall rates for the late 21st century, but whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes remains uncertain.
* A new modeling approach reproduces many important aspects of Atlantic hurricane activity observed since 1980, and thus shows promise as a tool for both understanding past variations and for making more reliable projections of future hurricane activity.
Dr. Lau has received numerous awards for his research and his scientific leadership, including among others, the AMS Meisinger Award in 1997; the John Lindsay Award,1998; the NASA Exceptional Science Achievement Award, 1991; the William Nordberg Award (GSFC highest award in Earth Sciences), 2002. He is a Goddard Senior Fellow, a fellow of the American Meteorological Society since 1988, and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, 2007. Dr. Lau has published over 190 refereed papers, book Chapters in refereed journals. He is the principal author of a book “Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere System”, published in 2006. Dr. Lau received his B. Sc. in Physics and Mathematics from the
Dr. Greg Holland is currently Director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at the
Dr. Holland has authored or co-authored more than 120 peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and book chapters, as well as dozens of planning documents, scientific prospectuses and workshop papers. He has given several hundred invited talks worldwide, as well as many contributed presentations at national and international conferences on hurricanes and related. He has also convened several national and international workshops, and served on several national and international committees and science-planning initiatives.
Dr. Gabriel Vecchi is a Research Oceanographer at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in
Dr. Vecchi currently serves on the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Indian Ocean Panel, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. His awards include the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the American Geophysical Union’s Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Geophysical Research Letters, and the
Thomas R. Knutson has been a Research Meteorologist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in
He currently serves on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones, and was a major contributor to the December 2006 WMO “Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change”. He is a member of a U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) committee developing an assessment report on “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate,” the AMS Climate Variability and Change Committee, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of Climate. Mr. Knutson has over 30 publications in peer-reviewed science journals or book chapters.
Posted in Science
Tags hurricanes
Hurricanes and Climate Change: What's Resolved and What Remains To Be Resolved?
http://www.hillheat.com/events/2007/09/21/hurricanes-and-climate-change-whats-resolved-and-what-remains-to-be-resolved
Is there a scientific basis for anticipating that human-induced climate warming does and/or will affect hurricanes in some way, over and above natural climate variability? Do observations and model simulations support that expectation, or are there issues with data and observations that make the task of sorting out linkages more difficult? If the latter, what are the observational and data issues that continue to make this a challenging scientific problem? What do we know now that we did not know two years ago? What role do model simulations play in helping to sort out linkages, if any, between global warming and hurricanes, in the absence of data/observation or the presence of unreliable data/observations? How can we best develop a coordinated national effort to provide urgently required information for planning, community response and infrastructure development.
Moderator
* Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Science Fellow, American Meteorological Society
Speakers
* Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
* Dr. William K. M. Lau, Chief, Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center,
* Dr. Greg Holland, Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory,
* Dr. Gabriel Vecchi, Research Oceanographer, Climate diagnostics Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, NJ.
* Thomas R. Knutson, Research Meteorologist, Climate Dynamics and Prediction Group, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA,
Overview of Hurricanes and Climate Change (a.k.a. global warming)
The understanding of climate change, including its effects on hurricanes, rests on three essential scientific techniques: theory, observation, and computational modeling. Each of these three approaches has unique strengths and limitations. In this talk, I will discuss the application of each of these to understanding the effect of climate change on hurricane activity and demonstrate that while each approach is compromised by uncertainties, taken together they present a persuasive picture of increasing hurricane risk as the climate warms.
Trends in tropical rainfall are more readily detectable in the form of changes in rainfall characteristics, rather than in rainfall total. From satellite data, we find that in the tropics there is a strong positive trend in extreme heavy and very light rains, coupled to a negative trend in moderate rain. Climatologically over tropical oceans, a large portion (over 60%) of most extreme heavy rainfall (top 5%) can be identified with those coming from tropical cyclones. Over the
Saharan dust can affect tropical cyclones development, and may be a factor contributing to long-term hurricane statistics and possibly in seasonal hurricane forecasts. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) can suppress tropical cyclogenesis through entrainment of hot, dry air into a developing cyclone, increasing stability and denying the developing system of its moisture supply. Saharan dust may also pre-condition the
Global Warming and Hurricane Activity
The past century has seen
This heightened hurricane activity is unlikely to decrease in the future and we may see further increases. If so, current planning, building and coastal levee systems may prove to be inadequate, leading to more New Orleans-type disasters. The National Hurricane Research Initiative is designed to provide us with the tools to assess this future threat, to develop improved forecast and community response approaches, and to establish coastal planning approach to minimize the potential for future disasters. It is an initiative of critical national importance, which deserves strong and urgent support.
Long-term changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity: Looking Forward and Looking Back
To understand how human-induced climate change influences global and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity it is essential to have accurate records of past tropical cyclone variations and to model future climate conditions. The ways that tropical cyclones are measured have evolved over time, thereby influencing the homogeneity of the record. Statistical techniques can help, however, to estimate these deficiencies in the century-scale record. To project future conditions, global climate models (GCMs) – though not perfect – are our best tools. Although current computing power prevents GCMs from explicitly representing tropical cyclones, GCMs do indicate robust changes in many of the large-scale environmental conditions that are known to influence tropical cyclone activity, such as the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and vertical wind shear. Analyses of climate models and reconstructions of past tropical cyclone records indicate:
* Observational evidence for century-scale changes in tropical cyclone activity is mixed, depending on the metric chosen, on the statistical correction applied to the data and on the time interval being examined.
* Climate model projections of the
* Outside of the
* Although questions remain about the detailed response of tropical cyclone activity to human-induced climate change, we have relatively much greater confidence in the projected response of other large-scale climate conditions to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g., global warming, surface temperatures over land warm faster than over ocean, Arctic sea ice reduction, increase in ocean heat content, etc.).
Modeling the Response of Atlantic Hurricanes to Climate Variability and Change
A pressing question concerning ongoing global warming is whether human-caused warming of the planet has had any discernible impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Confidence in any such a link is currently hampered by both data quality issues for the hurricane observational record and by limited work specifically targeting this question from a modeling perspective. Based on existing studies to date:
* Observed data, including consideration of data problems, give conflicting indications on whether there have been significant increases in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane numbers.
* High resolution models consistently project increasing hurricane intensities and rainfall rates for the late 21st century, but whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes remains uncertain.
* A new modeling approach reproduces many important aspects of Atlantic hurricane activity observed since 1980, and thus shows promise as a tool for both understanding past variations and for making more reliable projections of future hurricane activity.
Dr. Lau has received numerous awards for his research and his scientific leadership, including among others, the AMS Meisinger Award in 1997; the John Lindsay Award,1998; the NASA Exceptional Science Achievement Award, 1991; the William Nordberg Award (GSFC highest award in Earth Sciences), 2002. He is a Goddard Senior Fellow, a fellow of the American Meteorological Society since 1988, and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, 2007. Dr. Lau has published over 190 refereed papers, book Chapters in refereed journals. He is the principal author of a book “Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere System”, published in 2006. Dr. Lau received his B. Sc. in Physics and Mathematics from the
Dr. Greg Holland is currently Director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at the
Dr. Holland has authored or co-authored more than 120 peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and book chapters, as well as dozens of planning documents, scientific prospectuses and workshop papers. He has given several hundred invited talks worldwide, as well as many contributed presentations at national and international conferences on hurricanes and related. He has also convened several national and international workshops, and served on several national and international committees and science-planning initiatives.
Dr. Gabriel Vecchi is a Research Oceanographer at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in
Dr. Vecchi currently serves on the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Indian Ocean Panel, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. His awards include the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the American Geophysical Union’s Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Geophysical Research Letters, and the
Thomas R. Knutson has been a Research Meteorologist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in
He currently serves on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones, and was a major contributor to the December 2006 WMO “Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change”. He is a member of a U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) committee developing an assessment report on “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate,” the AMS Climate Variability and Change Committee, and is an Associate Editor of the Journal of Climate. Mr. Knutson has over 30 publications in peer-reviewed science journals or book chapters.
Posted in Science
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