Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Hurricane Preparedness and Media Coverge

Why the media is important in hurricane preparedness


Meteorology is like most sciences also part art. We can not tell exactly how many hurricane storms there will be. What we do need to remember is that such storms CAN occur and can pose a serious affect on the land and those that live within the storm’s path.

The only way to deal with hurricanes is to prepare for hurricanes.

My concern is that there has been a major change in attitude concerning hurricanes 2008 hurricane season.

Compare the coverage of how disasters were discussed in the media over the past say even 10 year and how they were covered this year. The intensity of coverage was very high for several storms such as Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Gustuv before, during and after. There was more coverage of these storms that Hurricane Ike especially in the post hurricane storm disaster recovery process. There are approximately 300 persons still missing from Ike and the ruination of so many communities along Galveston coastal area is astronomical. Yet the amount of attention to that situation is a drop in the bucket compared to that of Hurricane Katrina.

It is not just hurricanes that are lacking in public interest. On the west coast wildfires are not getting the same amount of media attention as they were just a year ago. If we track the amount of media coverage it is most like less than 40-60% of former years.

Yes on can make the point that the media coverage is sensational and emotionally manipulating. Some media have gone to the emotional component to heighten ratings.

Yet the media coverage of the after affects IS VERY IMPORTANT in that it does three very significant teachings.

1- Highlights the needs of the disaster victims. For the general population, many shy away from the needs of those in pain and suffering. By keeping the awareness focused on the long term needs of a disaster recovery situation

2- Provides intense education on the needs for disaster preparation. Many will consider their own personal preparedness responsibilities and begin to better prepare for a potential disaster. The more people that are prepared for a hurricane the more likely they will survive and recover from a disaster quickly and in better physical, emotional and financial shape. With less media coverage there is less public hurricane preparation and recovery education that reaches the general population.

3- Sustains awareness for philanthropic generosity. Without the media coverage the hurricane storm the awareness for needs of the charitable organizations wane considerably and thus the amount of disaster aid that can be offered is often much less. When this occurs it is often the tax payers that foot much more of the recovery bill with longer term dependence on local and federal assistance programs such as medical assistance, food distribution, housing supplements etc.

There needs to be a balance between responsible and educational media coverage and that of sensationalism that is abusive to both the general public and disaster victims.

We are now past the two significant historical points in hurricane stats for the year however it doesn’t seem that nature got the memo on that particular issue. For thousands of individuals it looks like they will be strongly affected by 2008 hurricanes for still the near future.

Please find below an interesting article from the Palm Beach Post on Hurricane Omar. Some historical facts are very interesting especially when considered in light of media coverage

Omar ties 2008 for 8th all-time in tropical storms

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/stormblog/

1014storms.jpg

Omar became the season’s 15th named storm at 11 a.m., tying 2008 for 8th place in the most Atlantic tropical storms in recorded history. The storm threatens Puerto Rico by Wednesday with winds of 70 mph, and is projected to become a Category 1 hurricane that moves northeast, away from Florida.

Tropical Depression 16 off Honduras could well become Tropical Storm Paloma tonight or Wednesday, according to a 2 p.m. advisory. That would bump the season into a tie for sixth place with 2003 and 1936 in tropical storms (the ones that get human names).

“There’s every indication that it will,” National Hurricane Center spokesman and forecaster Dennis Feltgen said of TD 16’s likelihood to reach tropical-storm status. He said the storm counts and yearly rankings cited above were consistent with the agency’s records.

The leader remains 2005 with 28 tropical storms. In contrast, there were only four tropical storms in 1983.

TD 16 is expected to pour 4 to 8 inches of rain over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, with up to 15 inches possible in places. Its forecast track eventually takes it inland to central America.

“These rainfall amounts could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,” an NHC advisory warned.

Scientists continue to debate the reasons for the high number of storms, and there’s no neat and tidy consensus on the role of global warming with regard to hurricanes. Warm water does seem to feed storms, but some long-term models that plug in rising water temperatures have suggested the frequency of hurricanes may actually decrease over time because of wind shear and other factors, though surviving storms could be stronger. One camp of scientists holds 25- to 40-year natural cycles explain what we’re seeing, and global warming does not play a decisive role.

Also, bear in mind that technology is better now than it was back in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and forecasters are better able to detect tropical storms that may form and fizzle before threatening land. That makes storm counts go up.

For example, Tropical Depression Nana far out in the Alantic has dissipated, falling off the NHC’s map. A little companion blob (circled in yellow) retains a low chance of forming a tropical cyclone.